Author : P. Janardhan Saikumar 1
Date of Publication :6th March 2017
Abstract: The Tropical Cyclone Hudhud caused extensive damage and loss of life in eastern India and Nepal during October 2014. The cyclone developed from a low pressure system that formed under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation in the Andaman Sea and intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm. The cyclone reached its peak intensity with a minimum central pressure of 950 mbar and reached the maximum sustained wind speed of 180 km/h. The cyclone crossed the Andhrapradesh coast near Visakhapatnam on October 12. In this present study The sensitivity of numerical simulations of tropical cyclone HUDHUD to physics parameterizations is carried out with a view to determine the best set of physics options for prediction of cyclones originating in the north Indian Ocean. The latent heat release in the clouds is the main source of energy for cyclone and the convective heating is mainly dependent on the cloud dynamical properties and microphysical processes. The model domain consists of one coarse and two nested domains. The resolution of the coarse domain is 45 km while the two nested domains have resolutions of 15 and 5 km, respectively. The results from the inner most domain have been considered for analyzing and comparing the results. Model simulation outputs are compared with corresponding observation data. The track and intensity of simulated cyclone are compared with best track estimates provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) data. Simulations are performed over the heavy rainfall days using four convective cumulus parameterization schemes, namely, BMJ (Betts-Miller-Janjic), GD (Grell-Devenyi), G3D (improved Grell-Denenyi) and KF (Kain-Fritsch) in combination with different microphysics parameterization schemes, namely, Kessler Scheme, Lin et al. Scheme, WSM-3 scheme, WSM-5 scheme and Thompson Schemes. The main purpose of the present study is to find the best suitable combination of microphysics, cumulus and PBL schemes for the simulation of accurate track of severe tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal. The cumulus, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MP) parameterization schemes have more impact on the track and intensity prediction skill than the other parameterizations employed in the mesoscale model.
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